Sunday, September 21, 2008

Week 3 ADD

Week 3 Card
Cincy/NYG O 41 ( 5 units)
Dallas -3 ( 3 units )
Tampa +3 ( 1 unit +110 bodog)
Minny -3 ( 1 unit ) sucker bet
Wash -3 ( 1 unit )

Tampa +3
Tampa is the better team here and they are getting points. Kyle Orton is a younger more mistake prone version of Griese, and I do like that Grease man has played with the Bears and knows the speed and tendencies of the defenders.

Both teams have quality defenses, and weaker offenses, but I like Tampa offense better. People were talking about how historically bad the Bears O would be a few weeks ago, but after they upset the Colts and fought with the Panthers, now they are laying points at home vs the NFC South champs of last year.

Tampa gets the edge on offense, but in a low scoring defensive slugfest, special teams play a bigger than usual part in the game. If Devon Hester was 100% healthy I am not sure I play this game, but with his impact reduced, Tampa is the better all around football team. Joesph, Gaines Adams, Brooks, and Galloway are dinged up, but Tampa is the better team. Antionio Bryant actually might be an upgrade over Galloway, and I'd expect Gruden to muster up enough offense to win outright. The 3 points are just a buffer and I love live dogs.

Minny -3
Classic sucker bet here. The public LOVES the Panthers for beating SD in SD, the public loves the dramatic come back victory last week over the bears, and they know Carolina is a better team this year. The Panthers are historically awesome under Fox as road dogs.

Joe Public also saw Minny squander a few games, replace their QB, and their star RB is hurt. A lot of money has been pouring in on Carolina, but that line isn't moving.

As sick as Adrian Peterson is, Chester Taylor is a capable starter and one of the best backups in the league. I think Peterson plays anyway, but even if he doesn't Minny wins this game.

If Terrible Tavaras was benched BEFORE the season, Minny would be at worst 1-1 right now, but maybe 2-0. He did absolutely nothing against Green Bay ( look at his first half numbers), his team carried him along, and he still threw a pick at the end of the game that cost his team. Last week, his team was in the red zone 5 times and had to kick 5 FG. Gus is no saint at QB, but he is the definition of average at this point, and right now that is good enough. Minnesota lost two one of the best NFC teams 2 weeks ago, and one of the best AFC teams last week, and they should have won both games. Minus the QB position, this is a very talented team. Minny's perception is underrated at 0-2 right now with 2 close losses to good teams, and Carolina's is overrated at 2-0 with 2 close wins. This game is a classic sucker bet.

Wash -3
I always love taking east coast teams in 1pm starts against west/central time zone teams. Arizona has beat nobody yet, and they haven't faced a defense like washington yet. JC will run the boring conservative offense, and the Skins win. Too much to write up, but I like them to win this one before traveling to Philly/Dallas and getting beat down.

Also looking at...
Wash/Arizona 2nd half over
Texans/Titans 2nd half over
No/Den 2nd half over
If the 1st halfs are low scoring and the numbers look good.

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