Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Week 15 early look cont...

Redskins @ Cincy
Another one of those home dogs here. Last week I loved the Washington under at baltimore. I had that game circled on my card and I pounded it like your little sister. This week I wanted to get washington in another under situation vs the Bengals. The line opened at 36. The bookies aren't going to make it that easy this time.The Bengals average 11.8 PPG and Washington averages 16.8 Let's take a look at the Redskins point totals...
@ Bal 10
@ Sea 20
Dal 10
Pit 6
@ Det 25 ( 7 on a punt return TD)
Cle 14
STL 17
@ Phi 23
@ Dal 26
Ari 24
NO 29
( that sucks)

@ Indy 3
Bal 3
@ Pitt 10
Phi 13 ( tie game, I believe they had 17 possessions)
Jax 21
@ Hou 6
Pitt 10
@ Jets 14
@ Dal 22
Cle 12
@ Giants 23
Tenn 7
@ Bal 10
The Bengals are dead last in offensive scoring and Washington is the 4th worst in scoring. Cincy has an excuse because they lost their top 5 QB Carson Palmer and are playing a Harvard geek, but Washington has all of those Danny Snyder Free Agents/Draft picks in play with their West Coast offense coach, it's just they have a complete Moron Jason Campbell running the plays.

Campbell might not throw a lot of INT's, but the guy has the 4the 4th lowest scoring offense in the league with the # 3 rusher, A pro bowl Tight end, A Pro Bowl WR, 3 second round draft pick pass catchers, the highest paid Slot WR, a Pro Bowl Left tackle, a coach that holds your hand to go over all the plays? Fans in Washington blame everybody but the big Alabama dope at QB, but HE is your problem. He is Byron Leftwhich part 2, and he will never be more than a game manager. That offense is an average 16th in Yards, but 29th in scoring. It is because the coaching staff is mortally affraid of giving Lional Richie the opportunity to throw the ball downfield and make plays ( and mistakes). Instead, he completes 50% of his passes to a RB or Tight end, and hopes to god they pick up passing yards, instead of throwing the ball downfield like a QB is supposed to.

The Redskins also have problems with their running back from the U. Clinton Portis doesn't like to practice and tried to milk his injuries into no practice last week. He gets into the Ravens game and fumbles early on, and Zorn benched him. His reason was that he didn't practice and "didn't know all the protections". Well, Clinton Portis wasn't too happy about that, just like he lashed out at Brian Mitchell earlier in the year, just like he called in the John Thompson show and bitched about the disfunction of the Redskins organization last year. Portis just loves to throw that dirty laundry out there. The guy is beyond brain dead, and that turmoil on offense could mean a lower score.

Stephan Heyer is supposed to kick out to LT for the injured Chris Samuels. A weaker offensive line should also make it harder for the Redskins to score. The Bengals might not get the sacks, but life should be easier.

Cincy D has the 2nd least sacks in the league 13.
Wash D has the 4th least sacks in the league 19.

This game features 2 of the lowest 5 scoring teams, but the Redskins have a strong defense, and Cincy has a bad defense. I like the Under 36.5 here.

Washington in their last 9 games
0 overs 8 unders 1 push

Wash has 2 overs, 10 unders, 1 push on the year.... Jason Campbell is an over hyped media QB overrated like Byron Leftwhich and Michael Vick were.

First Buy: Wash/Cincy UNDER 37 ( -120) 2 units

So NE is -7.5, Jets -7, Miami -7, San Diego -6, Carolina -7.5, Washington is -6.5. These numbers are all tempting for teaser players, but I highly doubt all of these teams win outright. The books need some of the teams to lose outright to bust up those teasers.If I had to guess right now, I'd guess Denver upsets Carolina, or KC the dog at home pulls the shocker on San Diego. New England is probably my least likely to get upset @ the Raiders, and I'd actually like to tease them with something.

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