Saturday, December 06, 2008

Week 14

Sunday Card
Patriots -3 ( -190) 3 units
Patriots -5 ( 1 unit)
Wash/Balt under 18 first half ( 2 units)
Wash/Balt under 36 ( 2 units)
Eagles + 7.5 ( 1 unit)

TEASER: Patriots + Ravens/Redskins Under 42 ( 3 units)

My card is very light for the 1pm games. I would love to add t
Titans/Cleveland under
Saints over or anything else after a weak 1st half of play. I will be watching the Giants/Eagles game, but I will be scouting it out for good second half plays. I do have the Patriots big at 4PM I will probably be adding the Steelers -3 at 4pm as well and watch that big game and possible SB match up.

The Patriots write up is 2 journal entries before this one, I got the line early, and thought the line would move to -6, and right now at Beted the line is -7.5, so buying it early really paid off. Seattle's top 2 offensive lineman are also questionable and their QB isn't even 100% as it is. Their line was so terrible vs Dallas, and now Walter Jones and Wahle are banged up and might not play. The Patriots aging pass defense might not get exposed, while they certainly will have a shot at exploiting Seattle. There is a lot more money on the Patriots, but the bookies have moved the line accordingly ( like they should have), which tells me they know the Patriots should bounce back.

These defenses give up an average of 34 points per game, and neither offense here scares me. In fact, Portis and Willis are both dinged up. Rice and Betts aren't bad, but neither have the big play ability and neither team should be able to run the ball much anyway. Here you have two game managers against solid defenses.

Take a loot at Washington's recent offensive point totals.
7 points vs the Giants on road
20 vs Seattle on road
10 vs Dallas at home
6 at home vs Pitt
25 vs Detroit
14 vs Cleveland
17 at home vs the Rams

The most points they ever scored in the past half season is 25 vs Detroit. In all honesty, that might be one of the more unimpressive outputs. 25 vs Detroit and 17 points vs the Rams is not very good considering they are two of the worst defenses in the league. Forget the 7 and 6 point outputs vs good defenses, consider that they can't impress you against the Scrubs, and even 7 of those points vs the Lions were on a Punt Return.

I think it is pretty safe to say the Redskins won't be scoring a lot this week. Baltimore is on the same caliber as the defenses that held the Redskins to 14 or less points. The biggest worry is Baltimore scoring more than their fair share.

In fact, the Ravens are a defensive team, but quietly 8-3-1 on overs. I think piling up the points on Cincinatti, Houston or some of the other teams in blow out wins is a lot easier than vs Washington this week. Both defenses give up 90 or less rushing yards per game, and 300 total offensive yards.Another factor is that we could see snow and very cold temperatures here in Washington. I'd expect similar in Baltimore, and especially for a night game.

Philly's last few games vs the Giants...
5 point loss earlier this year @ NY
3 point loss last year @ Philly
13 point loss last year @ NY
3 point win @ Philly 2 years ago ( playoffs)
14 point win @ NY 2 years ago
6 point loss @ Philly 2 years ago ( Over time)
3 point loss @ Philly 3 years ago ( OT)

That is 7 games right there, and 5 of them were within that 7.5 point margin and a couple of them Philly won outright. In reality, Plax did play a major part in those games, I can remember that deep Ball that Plax caught to win the OT game in 2006.

The Giants are 10-2 ATS, the Eagles are 7-5 ATS and the last few weeks people said that they would take the Giants at any line, and some people said they would never bet Philly ever again.

Philly had their backs against the wall last week ( and crushed Arizona), and they pretty much have their playoff hopes on the line this week. I am a little bit biased in Giants games ( and wouldn't care if the Giants won 49-0 as it would easily be worth a 1 unit loss), but I felt the Giants are NOT going to go 15-1, and a loss to the Eagles here in upsetting fashion is very possible.... even before you take the TD and hook.

Some of the Giants beef on their lines are dinged as questionable: Center Shaun O'Hara and run stopper Fred Robbins. People are talking about Asante Samuel and Bryan Westrbook, but make no mistake to the value of the Giants center and run stopper.

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]