Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Week 15 thoughts/thinking out loud

Chicago/New Orleans
- New Orleans is 1-5 on the road, I can't get that stat past my mind. That offense averages 28 PPG overall, but only 22 PPG on the road. The Saints could score 51 points on Green Bay at home, but then shit out 7 points vs Carolina on the road.
- Chicago is 4-2 at home with their only losses at TD loss to the Titans, and an OT Loss to the Bucs. The Bears defense has actually performed a little worst statistically at home, but their offense has performed better. I susupect that MOST of that data comes from that outlier 48-41 win vs Minnesota.
- I see some key injuries for the Saints on defense. C. Grant, Mckenzie and Porter hurt, Kaesvaharn is a starter the bum safety is injured but that guy should go back to substitute teaching.
- The Bears are actually pretty healty, with Nathan Vasher as the only real key injury.
Total opened at 46 and got bought down to 44.5
The Saints have gone over 13-4-1 out of their last 18
The Saints have gone over 19-7-1 out of their last 27 vs NFC
Chicago has gone over 19-7 of their last 26 home games
Chicago has gone over 27-11-1 out of their last 39 vs NFC

I would lean Bears and the over right now. This is a rematch of 2 years ago's NFC Championship and the Bears won at home 39-14. Drew Brees had no run game ( Reggie Bush ran for 19 yards). Brees had to do it all by himself, throwing for 354 in a losing effort while Sexy Rexy completed 11/26 passes for 144 yards and "managed the game". This is a classic offense vs defense, and the home field favors the Bears. That Saints offense just isn't as potent on grass and in the cold and wind.

Seattle @ St. Louis
This is the kind of game that only a Seattle fan, St Louis fan, or true degenerate would bet on. There is no reason for anybody to watch a game between a team that lost 6 straight games and a team that lost 7 straight games.

The Hawks actually covered last week with the help of a bullshit Deion Branch out of bounds play but that's cool. I watched the Hawks on Thanksgiving and saw no pass rush on the road in Dallas, but they actually came close to Matt Cassell last week. It looks like the young USC Draft pick Lawrence Jackson was able to apply some pressure. Seattle has one of the shittiest pass defenses in the league, but I think that is more of a function of a weak pass rush than shoddy corners ( Marcus Trufant is still a beast).

The only line I see right now is STL + 3 at the Las Vegas Hilton. I think the books are waiting to see if another mobile QB is going to get the start or Matt Hasselback. If you can't tell, I am not a very big fan of 5'10 "scramblers" playing QB in the NFL. If I wanted to watch that, I'd watch football on Saturdays or Fridays. Sundays are for throwers.

The thing about Seattle, is their offensive line is in shambles. Their starting Center is out ( never underestimate that!), their best Guard is out with injury, and Walter Jones is day to day. The Rams are a crappy football team, but the only area where I do see strong promise is their Defensive line. Chris Long and Leonard Little have speed on the outside, while Glover and Carriker have power inside.I see no reason to bet this game.

You just can't count on two piss poor football teams. Both offenses average under 20 PPG and the defenses give up a compined 56 PPG on average.

Bills @ Jets
Was it me or did the Buffalo Bills start this season 5-1? The team has lost 6 or their last 7 since then to be 6-7.
- Two weeks ago the ESPN Hype machine talked about a Jet/Giants SB, but now the Jets dropped 2 in a row to below average football teams. WHOOPS!The Line opened Jets -6.5, the Line now sits at Jets -7, and Jets -7.5 at Bet ed. I would anticipate the Public liking the Jets in this one, so if you do want to play ( or tease the Jets), I would suggest doing that early in the week.
- The Jets are 3-9 ATS vs a team with a losting record ( playing down to the competition)
- Buffalo has gone Under 6-2-1 vs the AFC East.The Bills "might" get Trent Edwards back to start over that punk Surfer mobile quarterback JP LOSE MAN.

I'd actually lean on the Jets to win this game at home after 2 crappy weeks. It might be good to tease this game now when the line is 7 early in the week before it could get bought up to potentially 9 before kick off.

The Jets average 4.8 Yards per carry running the ball at home for 126.5 yards, while the Bills run defense gives up 4.3 per carry on the road for 123.8 yards. It looks like Thomas Jones should surpass the 100 yard mark with a touch or two. The Ace in the hole stat I have for you, is that Buffalo's Defense only has 7 INT's, so if you are counting on Favre throwing 3 or 4 crappy INT's, you might not get bailed out.

SF @ Miami
- SF has quietly won 3 out of their last 4
- Miami has quietly won 6 of their last 7

It seems like SF backers like to back their new head coach with fire in those bug eyes of his... calling out lazy me first players like Vernon Davis, while Miami backers like playing the "hot suprise team" of 2008.

I have a couple of stats you might like...
Miami leads the NFL in Take away/give away +12
San Fran is dead last in the NFL in Take away/give aways -14

Why?Miami has Chad Pennington playing Martyball at QB. I am not sure if it still holds true, but he has the highest completion percentage of any active QB's. Everybody knows he has a weak little noddle arm, but the guy does well at dinking and dunking you all day and not turning the ball over. I don't know if it is so much that he can't throw the ball deep, but with all those surgeries, the guy only has so much stamina.

On the other side of the ball, we have Mike Martz the mad scientist. The guy lost the Rams/Patriots SB because Bill Bellicheck was running at nickel defense as his BASE defense begging Martz to run the ball with Marshall Faulk. Martz and his ego just had to pass to win instead of run to win, and Bellicheck called his bluff.

This is one of the famous " west coast teams traveling east for a 1pm start". The San Fran turnover machines vs the Miami Dolphins. I am not sure if I am going to play this game, but it wouldnt' shock me to see Miami shit stomp the 49ers due to winning the turnover battle big.

SD is not who we thought they were this year as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games. They have had a heavy dose of bad calls, inconsistant road play, LT hitting a wall, Turner gone, Merriman out, and Norv Turner.

KC has actually won 2 in a row winning @ Oakland and @ Denver. Their last 2 home games they gave up a combined 84 points in losses. When I think of homefield advantage, the Chiefs are one team I think of, so starting out a 3.5 point dog, bought already up to 6 is interesting. The public is sure to bet on SD, and home dogs haven't done well this year. Is now the time to lay some coin on KC? Tyler Thigpen has thrown 14 TDs, 8 INTs and has a respectable 77 QB rating for a young guy coming out of nowhere. Is that enough to take the home dog? They still do have the HERM at head coach.

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetingsThe dog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings KC in december, home underdog KC could be a home dog that cashes, but I'd like to look at other games before taking an unproven QB and the HERM.

Green Bay @ Jax
Watch for this game to be heavily bet on by Green Bay. Jacksonville looked like absolute shit in their MNF game, their defense isn't what it was last year, they had internal conflict, people think they quit on the coach, and their mobile quarterback's true colors have come out.

Aaron Rodgers on the other hand has a 92.1 QB rating, 22 TDs, 11 INTs and he has done a better job than most though ( myself included) filling in for #4.The Pack have lost 3 in a row ( some close ones to Houston and Carolina), while the Jags have lost 6 of 7. In fact, Gren Bay has actually averaged 3 points more than opponents, yet they are 5-8. They have lost a lot of close games ( Titans, Vikings, Carolina, Houston) to decent teams.

Can the pack win on the road? Well they are 2-4, but I see no reason why they can't beat the 1-5 home Jags. This game "could" be a sucker bet, but the Packers are actually a +7 team in the turnover margin. The Packers pass D has been exposed as of late, but Garrard's arm doesn't scare me. The Jags have also lost Matt Jones and Rasheen Mathis for the year.

I lean the Packers here.

The Packers run D has been run over this year to the tune of 141.8 yards per game and the Jags do have MJD and Fred Taylor, but is their O-line capeable of beating anybody? The Jags STILL don't run the ball for over 100 yards on grass. My guess is the reason why this line is "light" and pretty close is because the books figure Jack Del Rio will just hammer away with his 2 running backs against the weak packers D.

If I am the Packers defensive coordinator, I have 8 guys in the box every single down, and I forge David Garrard to beat me throwing passes to Jerry Porter ( 1 catch last week), Dennis Northcut ( 1 catch, 5 yards last week), and an injured Troy Williamson.

Detroit @ Indy
Bail out Detroit? Not happening this week. The lions could go down in NFL history as one of the worst teams to ever put on a uniform. They have an immature child playing QB, a center that flicks off the fans, a horrible defense, and only a few Players to build around ( Calvin Johnson, Ernie Simms, Cliff Avril and Leigh Bodden).

I was fading the Lions earlier this year, and on Thanksgiving when you have idiots saying ( play the Lions on Thanksgiving, they always try harder). The Lions are so bad, and everybody knows it. You aren't going to make money fading a team everybody knows that sucks, you need to fade a team people actually LIKE. The Lions are one of the worst teams in NFL history, but they are 5-8 ATS.

The Colts have won 6 in a row, but before last week, their win margins were 4, 3, 6, 4, 3. You see, most QB's in the NFL take snaps and try and score points. Peyton Manning on the other hand, is asked to have nice long time consuming efficient drives that keep his defense off the field and score points. It is a lot harder to do. The Colts might get Jeff Saturday and some others back, but they might as well let them sit as this is about as close to a bye week as you come.I already have NFL futures on the Colts to win the SB +900 and over 11 games +140 which I bought before this season started.

Titans @ Houston
Houston is the 3 point home dogThe Titans and Bucs have been two of my darling teams this year. The Titans are 11-1 and 10-2 ATS. In fact, I faded them in their ATS loss to Green Bay too.
The Titans are 6-0 on the road
The Titans are 6-0 ATS on the road
Houston is 4-2 at home
Houston is 2-4 ATS at home

Houston racks up 381.5 yards per game on offense,but the Titans give up a stingy 273.8 on defensethe Titans love to run on offense 145.8 & 4.4 per carryHouston can't stop the run on Defense 127.3 & 4.6 per carry.

I actually like both coaches. Fish is clearly one of the best in the league, he isn't going to be tricked in game situations ( like Dungy) and he can game plan and beat teams better than him. Kubiak hasn't gotten a lot of praise yet, but he took over a weak team with a horribe QB ( Carr) and is building them in that Denver image. If he was in a crappy division, his success would be a lot more apparent, but he plays in a divison with Peyton Manning, 1st place Fischer, and Jack Del Rio has done well with the Jags besides this year. While everybody is jumping on the Mangini, Sean Payton, Tomlin bandwagons for young coaches with bright futures, I think Kubiak is underrated considering what he has done and what he has. I mean, he's had a backup QB over 50% of the time the past 2 years and basically has a .500 record. Where would Dungy be without Manning, or Marvin Lewis without Caron Palmer ( jobless), Payton without Brees etc.I do lean the Titans here, I'd want to get them at -3. I think they match up well, but Houston is no push over. I don't see this game as a lock by any means, and Houston is a home dog ( which they should do well), but the Titans are the better all around team. Some weeks I just consider taking every home dog across the board. Last week you'd bet 2-0, and based on how home dogs have done this season, they are due to cash in during the coming weeks.

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