Sunday, December 28, 2008

Week 17

Week 17 Open picks
Picks from preseason
Browns Under 8 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units WIN
Ravens Under 6 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units LOSS
Colts OVER 11 wins +140, 2 units to win 2.8 units
Colts to win Super Bowl +900, 2.5 units to win 22.5
Week 16 addition I had to jump on
Peyton Manning to win MVP +350, 2.5 units to win 8.75

Week 17
Buffalo +6 ( 2 units)
Miami +3 ( 2 units)
Houston -2.5 ( 2 units)
NY Giants 1st half +3.5 ( 2 unit)
Steelers 1st half -7 ( 1 unit)

Week 16 recap
Colts 2nd half -6.5 ( 3 units) WIN
Dallas -5 ( 1 unit) LOSS
Pittsburgh -1 ( 1 unit) LOSS
NY Giants -3 ( 5 units) WIN
2-2, PLUS 6 UNITS !!!

I went back and watched a taped game I had earlier in the year,
Bills @ Patriots -3.5
Pats won 20-10.
Special Teams
Bills special teams were very good. NE had to work on full fields, Leodis McCelvin almost ran two kicks back. One was about 60 yards, the other was about 40 yards. Even thought the Bills offense isn't as good, they were already nearly in scoring range on both returns. The Bills have a few guys that can return ( Roscoe Parrish as well).
Red zone scoring
The Pats don't run that ball that well, and had trouble throwing in the redzone. They actually scored their first TD on a Matt Cassell DRAW, and they scored their 4th Q TD on an unusual defensive holding call by Marcus Stroud. All of the other Pats points were field goals. Red zone If you are laying 7 points to a divisonal rival on the road, you NEED to convert your red zone opportunites into TD's, and I saw the Pats luck out twice.
Trent Edwards had 2 picks
Matt Cassell had 1 fumble
I'd say normally they probably turn the ball over the same so the advantage goes to Buffalo.
Marshawn Lynch might not play, but his backup Fred Jackson played about as well as him. The Pats front 7 is decimated by injuries.I thought the Bills cornerbacks covered the Patriots WR's very well. Even on the passes that they caught, they bad a BILL right there. MOST of the catches were in the middle of the field, right in front of the linebackers. Cover 2, the outsides were covered pretty well by the corners, but Wes Welker running crossing routes vs Bills linebackers was deadly. The Pats eat people alive with those short passes. Matt Cassell was able to be something like 18/23 passing at one point in time because he was killing them with welker. Besides the short stuff, the Bills coverage was suprisingly good.
I initally strongly leaned the Over for this game, because that Patriots front 7 is very injured and I believe the Pats will be able to move the ball, and so will the bills, but I am not sure anymore. I think just taking the Bills at home +7 is a better play.Everybody wants to play the Patriots because they "need to win", but don't you " need to win" all of your games? Odds makers aren't going to give the public anything at this time in the year. Weeks ago the Pats were -3.5 at home, but now they are -7 on the road? I understand M. Lynch is injured, but if anything, the Pats have more injuries, and are giving " extra" points on the road. You may say that the Pats, " have" to win, but wouldn't the Bills love to knock the "cheaters' right out of the playoffs? I'll bet you money that some team that " needs to win" won't even win, nevermind cover the pointspread.You could argue Buffalo " quit on the season", but then why did they just go into Denver and beat a team that had all the motivation in the world to win?7 points is way too many for an injured Pats/front 7 on a divisonal road game. The Bills have the special teams edge, and will try and win the game nevermind cover the spread.So glad I watched this game. Buffalo looks like a solid play.
Strong winds bode well for Buffalo vs an injured NE front 7. The Bills have the largest offensive line in the NFL, and they won't be as effected with their short passes and with them trying to establish the run vs Patriots linebackers picked up off the street and out of retirement. The Pats might not be AS effected as you might think, they will attack the Bills inside the hash marks on short passes to welker, but with 50 mph winds, even that is more difficult.

Miami is the "it" team this year. I haven't had the best luck betting on them, I took them week 1 vs the Jets, I took them against the Pats about a month ago and lost, but as the Jets are limping into their season finale, the Fins have already had a successful year. This game is a grudge match for Pennington/Parcells. The Jets are 1-3 in their final four games, they should be 0-4 if not for a dumb mobile JP. Losman running and fumble within the final 2 minutes. It's not like the Jets lost to anybody good anyway, Denver, San Fran and Seattle? Gimme the Dog and the Points. Miami has won 8 out of their final 9 and the 3 points are insurance.

Better team here. People will swear the Bears ' need to win", but the reason they "need to win" is because they aren't that great in the first place. Winning overtime games you should have lost will come back to haunt you eventually. People can talk about the Bears " courage" and "fight", but they should be beating those teams anyway. Houston beat a strong Titans team at home not too long ago, and Kubiak DOES have motivation to finish 8-8 in a strong AFC South.

NY Giants 1st half
Coughlin will probably sit his guys, but will it be after the 1st Q or halftime? I am guessing he sits them after halftime and getting 3.5 points with the NFC's best team is a good bet.

Steelers 1st half
The Steelers are clearly the better team than the turds. People are shying away from this game because the Steelers have no incentive to blow them out. Byron Leftwhich will certainly see time, but will Tomlin pull Big Ben after the 1st Q or 2nd Q? In my opinion, the Browns haven't scored a TD on offense in a month, and as long as the Steelers jump out to a lead, they can easily cover 1 possession.

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]