Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Week 12, Early jump

Indy ML -411 ( 25 units)

Last night I saw Indy ML at 380 but hesitated to jump on it. I thought there was a mistake. -380 seemed cheap to me, but this morning I looked at the line and saw -411. I pounded 25 units as I intend on betting Philly + > 411 later.

I might actually let SOME of it ride ( say 5 units), but it looks like a good opportunity for arbitrage. I think the 1 loss Colts will bounce back against Jeff Garcia and the Beagles, and the public will probably think so also. I wouldn't be suprised to see that Moneyline bought OVER -450.

If there is free money on the table, why not pick it up? I layed a good portion of my bankroll on Indy, with the intention of arbitrage. I am kicking myself for not taking Indy -380, but there still looks like there is money to be made.

I played the Giants and Bengals early at -3 also. I think the Giants "struggles" last night consisted of about 8 dropped passes. It is true that SOME of those passes were inaccurate, but if 8 passes his your receivers hands, they need to catch at least 5 or 6 of them. Of Course Eli's stats were bad. He played the bears last week and Jax this week. Plax dropped a 50 yard bomb and numerous other passes.

There is no better way to cure your offense than played the 32nd ranked defense in the NFL, Tennesse. I look for the Giants to score points next week against the Titans.

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