Saturday, November 18, 2006

Week 11

Bills @ Houston -1 (3 units) ( see previous post)
New England ML -230 @ Green Bay ( 5 units)
San Diego @ Denver -1 ( 1 unit so far)
Hard looks
Cincy @ New Orleans over 52 ( look for 2nd half bet on the over)
Detroit @ Arizona over 45.5 ( look for 2nd half bet on over)

New England has lost two in a row. I don't know the last time BB and Brady lost 3 in a row, but I like thier chances here. The Pats have NOT lost yet on the road ( 4-0), and the Pack have for some reason struggled at home (1-3). New England is due for a win, and I've hard talk of ( cough cough) playoffs for the Packers. Don't be fooled, the Packers are NOT a playoff team. There is an old saying about the stock market, to "get out", when the shoe shine boy starts talking about how great the market is. Talk of the Packers in the playoffs means it's time to sell. The Pack have won 3 of 4 against weak competition, but now they will be playing a New England team hungry for a win. There is a lot of money on the Patriots -5.5, but the ML is only -230. I'd say there is a decent chance that the Pack covers, but I really like the Pats to win straight up and will lay five units on -230.

San Diego and Denver are clearly the class of the NFC West. Denver should be a 3 point home favorite, but I think the wild cincy/ SD game has more people looking to bet the chargers. Fans love offense, excitement, new players, and LT scoring 4 touchdowns. Let's not forget that Denver has won 7 of their last 8 games, and they would have beat the colts if they had the ball last. It was one of those sorts of games where whoever has the ball last wins.

It's a sunday night game where 58% of people at are on the chargers. Dogs are supposed to bark the loudest on Nationally televised games, but I think this is a rare situation...

Last year the favorites won something like 60% of the time ( which is signifigant). People assume that since favorites beat underdogs 60% of the year that the "public" had a good year... Not true. Last year a lot of public dogs lost which hurt the public. San Diego is one of those public dogs. The line really should be SD +3, but if the line was SD +3 on a Nationally televised game everybody would pound the chargers. The line is SD +1 and the chargers STILL have 58% of the bets on them.

Not only is Denver solid Value, but I'd also give them a slight edge in this game. Phillip Rivers will be on his second consecutive road game in a very hostile enviornment. Denver argueably has the best homefield advantage in the entire NFL. Some would say that the hometeam gets 3 points, but some homefield advantages ( Denver, Seattle, etc.) are really worth more like 4. Denver's defense is good, and they only give up 3.6 yards per carry against the run which should help slow down LT. The Broncos give up only 12.3 points per game. Right now I only have 1 unit on Denver, but depending on how tommorow goes, I might add to that play.

Cincy @ New Orleans over 52 ( no play)
I like the over in the Bengals/Saints game, but the line already shifted upward ( from 49 to 52) and I hate overpaying for anything in life. Instead of paying 3 more points, I will sit on the sidelines and look to bet on the 2nd half. Hopefully, the first half has failed conversions and bad field position which leads to a low 2nd half over/under. I will be drooling if the 2nd half over at around 24 or less. Sometimes games start off slow, and scoring opportunites fail, but this game has two teams with very good offenses and average to bad defenses. Not only are both offenses good, but they like to PASS and they are on TURF! Drew Brees has proved everything he needs to prove to me, and the saints of 2006 remind me of those rams teams of the late 90's.

I'd probably say that both the Saints and Bengals offenses are probably a little underrated, and their defenses are both a little overrated. I'm still not sold on the saints D. The Bengals offense had some chad Johnson drama for a while ( that looks over) as they were failing to execute. It's not like the Bengals couldn't score, they were just executing poor, the team DOES have all the pieces to be a high scoring team.

Two of the biggest factors in an Over/Under bet is the playing surface and the weather. This game between two good offenses, and two bad defenses is indoors and on turf. Palmer and Brees are both in the 2nd Tier of Quarterbacks. Once again, if the 2nd half Over is under 24 ( for whatever reason), I will look to pound the 2nd half over. You never know, the score at halftime could be 13-10 and the public could have their opinion swayed. One of the other things to remember about 2nd half bets is that defenses get tired, offenses adjust, and there is always the possibility of overtime

I like the over/under the in the Lions/Cards game as well, but I hate overpaying for anything. If I could rewind to when these lines came out I would have played the Over at 44, but I don't want to buy now at 45.5 . The Lions have played OVER on their last 4 road games giving up 34, 41, 26, and 31 point all in losses. Their defense doesn't travel, and they have the mad scientist calling plays on offense. The cardinals love to pass on offense, and Matty Leinart should have all of his receivers tommorow. I also think Matty Leinart gets his first win as a starter tommorow in front of all 27 Cardinals fans. If the 2nd half over/under is reasonable, I will buy the OVER for the 2nd half.

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