Saturday, November 25, 2006

Week 12 sucker bet

Steelers +3 @ Ravens ( 2 units)

The Steelers are 4-6 and 1-4 on the road
The Ravens are 8-2 and 4-1 at home

Now how come the Steelers are only 3 point dogs? This sugests that the teams are virtually equal on a neutral field and the steelers would be 3 point favorites at Pittsburgh?

I think the Steelers going on a run last year was no streak of luck. I think the Steelers have one of the best coaching staffs and organizations in sports. Dick Leabou is a top notch defensive coordinator, and Russ Grimm is one of the best offensive line coaches. Bill Cower is a master motivator and I believe the steelers late season run was no luck. Their style of play, home field, and coaching makes them a threat later in the year. I'm not sure, but Bill Cower coached teams have traditionally started off slower, and improved later in the year.

I rode the2-6 Steelers a few weeks ago when they were nearly touchdown favorites over the 6-2 saints.

I think this line is probably this low because of where the steelers are NOW, instead of what they have done all year. The rivarly factor is there also. I know Hines ward is questionable and it could hurt pittsburgh, but the Ravens have their injury concerns of their own. I believe a lot of this game comes down to the Ravens being "due" for a loss. The Ravens have won a lot of close games. The Ravnes could have easily lost that Chargers game early in the year. One the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh has lost more than their fair share of close games.

Last week the Steelers won a thriller in Cleveland. The game was one of those tough games that could have gone either way, but you have to think the Steelers didn't play their best game. That early Big Ben pick 6 was awful and not something you see every week. The Steelers return game has been a problem thus far, but you have to think they will practice extra hard for Super Sams. If the game has that kind of feel like last week, the Steelers have a good shot of winning or covering.

Bill Parcells has his theory that if you have two teams that are pretty equal talent wise, the team that has more on the line will win more often than not. If the Steelers lose, they are done. If the Steelers do win, they get two home games they are clear favorties in against Tampa and Cleveland. I like the Steelers to win or lose by no more than 3 making it the week 12 sucker bet.

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