Sunday, November 19, 2006

Sucker bet 11

Dallas Cowboys "pick'em" ( 2 units)

The sucker bet is now 9-1 on the year! The one loss this season was when the Colts beat Denver in Denver. Although it was a loss, it was one of those kinds of games where whoever has the ball last wins. Peyton had the ball last and won. Peyton was scoring at will with his passing attack, Denver was scoring at will with their running attack. You can't win them all, and 9 out of 10 is pretty damn good.

This week I will have to go against the only opponent who beat me, the colts. There are 31 other teams in the NFL and plenty of other games but I have to go against the colts. It's tough to bet against Peyton Manning, but I have to coinvince myself that this isn't a play against Peyton, but a play against that terrible defense.

The colts are a 9-0 undefeated team that opened as a 1 point underdog against the 5-4 cowboys. There is no such thing as a "gift" from Las Vegas. Those odds makers are on point, and often times have totals and spreads that are so close to the actual outcomes. The oddsmakers have more access to information, and they know the public like the sheep that they are. There is a big psychology factor into capping these games. Remember last week we had the 6-2 New Orleans Sanits go into Pittsburgh as 6 point underdogs agains the 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers? The Public wanted to take the 6-2 team getting almost a touchdown, because even if they lost they "should cover". Well the steelers won by 7 and the public lost their shirt.

The colts are 9-0 but the margins of their wins isn't that impressive. It seems that they have played DOWN to a lot of their weaker competition, and played hard against some of their fiercest competition. Their offense is really good, but their defense is really bad. The style of their play puts so much pressure on the braniac Peyton and the rest of that finesse offense. The closest wins for them were actually a 1 point wins over Buffalo and Tennesse. They beat Denver by 3, and New England and Jacksonville by 7 each.

I'm actually suprised the colts are undefeated. If you stepped away from their players, and looked at them statistically, it's kind of amazing that they beat two of the worst teams in the leauge by 1 point each and yet they are undefeated. It's kind of amazing that all their games have come down to 1 possession or less and that they are undefeated. I think the colts are due to go down, and Dallas will be their waterloo.

The Dallas Cowboys are 5-4, but have new life after naming Tony Romo the starting quarterback. The team should really be 3-0 under romo, if not for a blocked 35 yard field goal against washington. I'm not sold on Romo as a QB at all, but he gives that what Bledsoe couldn't give them. Bledsoe was nicknamed " the statue of Liberty" because he held onto the ball forever. His untimley interceptions, and fumbles will kill a team. Turnovers kill. Romo might or might not be the passer that Bledsoe is, but just by eliminating those turnovers it made Dallas a better team. Bledsoe also used Terry Glenn as his "go-to" guy, but Romo loves throwing to TO. If anything, maybe that will help out the chemistry in Dallas.

In case you missed it, Dallas has the #3 ranked defense in the NFL ( yards wise) right behind da bears and the dolphins. Parcells has his defense the way he likes it. A lot of coaches love speed. In the mid 90's Jimmy Johnson was notorios for finding the fastest players for their positions. He would even move a safety to linebacker to just have that much speed. Parcells has always been a guy that would go for bigger, stronger, more veteran players. He would take a Veteran Brian Cox type player at Linebacker that might not be a speed demon, but was big, nasty, and liked to hit.

Dallas runs a 34 front, but I thought I saw a statistic that their front 7 was the biggest in football. It was kind of deceptive because Greg Ellis ( now injured) was really a big DE lined up at OLB. Parcells has his bigger 3-4 front, but he has his Y2K version of Lawernce Taylor in Demarcus Ware. Ware is that animal manchild that you just can't account for. Parcells Dallas front might not be the fastest in the league, but they are big and tough. Those guys take up space, and you might even see Roy Williams creeping down to the front 7 to hit people. The Dallas Defense is ranked 4th against the run, and 9th against the pass.

Peyton has had some trouble against the 3-4 in his career. The Chargers were the first team to beat him last year. Shawn Merriman played the role that Demarcus Ware will play today. The chargers blitz, blitz, blitzed and got to Manning. One of the big complaints I had against Denver a few weeks ago, is that they didn't Blitz Peyton and get to him. Parcells is no fool, and I EXPECT him to bring the heat on Peyton. The other team that beat the Colts last year was the Steelers and their 3-4. They brought the heat, and they too beat Peyton. Peyton's perennial arch rival, the New England Patriots also run the 3-4. I'm not sure WHY he has had some trouble against the 3-4, but it's been there. It could be due to not knowing where all 4 linebackers will go with those disguised coverages, or it could be a false correlation. Maybe it's not the 3-4 defenses that he has trouble with, all of those 3-4 defneses are also GOOD defenses. Dallas does have a good defense too though.

Parcells is no fool. In the press conference he hinted that the colts will see a heavy dose of Marion Barber AND Julious Jones. I think that Parcells will try and use the blueprint and beat Peyton. Run Run Run on offense, and Blitz Blitz Blitz on defense. Expect the ball to bounce the other way, and the intangibles to favor Dallas. The cowboys can really give Romo a name today. Philly should cruise over the Titans, and the Giants could lose against Jacksonville. In two weeks, Dallas could be in first place if they beat the Giants. How hyped up would the cowboys be if they beat both Mannings and are in first place? We will hear so much about Romo and Owens on ESPN our heads will sping. I'm not sure HOW dallas wins, but they do. The game could be fixed for all I know, but I know for damn sure I wouldn't bet on the colts today. I have a smaller play on Dallas, but I wouldn't bet on the colts.

The Plays...
New England ML ( 5 units)
Houston -1 ( 3 units)
Dallas pick ( 2 units)
Denver -1 ( 1 unit so far)

and I am looking to play the 2nd Half overs in the Saints/Cincy and Detroit/Arizona games because I hate overpaying for anything in life.

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