Saturday, November 25, 2006

Week 12

The rest of week 12 besides turkey day...

Turkey Day
Miami -3 ( 1 unit)

Bengals -3 @ Browns ( 2 units)
Steelers +3 @ Baltimore ( 2 units)
4:15 PM
NY Giants -3 @ Tennesse ( 4 units)
8:15 PM
Philly @ Colts ML ( 25 units to win 6)

Bengals -3 @ Browns.
I'm surprised this line isn't moving. I know 3 is a hard number to move off of, but the public is pounding the Bengals. However, the public should be looked at as an "angle" and not a rule.

The Bengals haven't had a very successful year thus far at 5-5. They had lost 3 in a row before winning in Naw Awleans last week. They had some hard fought losses but Marvin Lewis's defense hasn't shown much. I still think Lewis is one of the most overrated coaches in pro football and if he didn't have Carson Palmer he could be in trouble. Marvin Lewis is a "defensive genius", but his defense hasn't improved at all the years he has been in Cincy. In fact, his defense wasn't that good in Washington either where he was the defensive coordinator of a huge payroll team. The last time Marvin Lewis was a genius is when he coached Ray Lewis and the 2000 Ravens "black out" defense. ( who couldn't coach that defense?)

I've said before that Cincinnati reminds me of a junior Indianapolis. Carson Palmer is the real deal and commands a dynamic offense. The Bengals can score points, but can their defense stop the bleeding?

The Browns have been loosing but fighting. I have futures on the Browns to win LESS than 7 games this year. The Browns lost a nail biter to Pittsburgh last week, beat a lame Michael Vick 2 weeks ago, lost a tough one to the chargers 3 weeks ago, and beat the Jets a month ago.

Charlie Frye actually has a chance of being somebody. I'm certainly not saying Charlie Frye WILL be any good, but he has a chance of being decent. The Browns played like a decent team and I am well aware that they could make this a game.

The point spread really should be the Browns +3, but the way the public has been hitting Cincy I'm still a little surprised the line hasn't moved. I'm not happy to be with the public on this one, but they can't lose them all. It annoys me though that people think the Bengals are so great, and the Browns are so bad. This should be a tough one but I think the Bengals win and cover. Carson Palmer is a guy that I don't like to bet against.

Pitt @ Bal ( 2 units)
Sucker bet

NY Giants @ Tennessee

All I see on ESPN now is how Eli Manning is struggling. The last 2 games the played the mighty Chicago Bears and the Jacksonville Jags. I counted between 6 and 9 dropped balls in the Jags game. There was a challenge that also took away a 50 yard completion to Plax. As " bad" as Eli Manning played, the Giants were in the game until the end. I think people have poured more criticism than necessary on Eli Manning. How come whenever an Atlanta Falcon drops a pass, we have to hear how Vick gets no help? I heard nothing about how Eli Manning’s receivers dropped all of those balls.

There is no better cure for those less than stellar performances than a game against Tennessee. The Titans have one of the leagues worst defenses and give up over 400 yards per game on average.

A few Weeks ago the Titans played the Ravens and everything that could have gone wrong for Baltimore DID. Rather than folding up and dying, Steve Mcnair kept his cool and picked apart the Titans Defense piece by piece for the entire second half. Vince Young was in a terrible position because his Titans couldn't run out the clock against the Ravens defense. The Ravens played good defense in the second half, and efficient offense and won.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Eli Manning and Tiki Barbers reestablish themselves this week. I wouldn't be surprised if Eli Manning showed off one of his new toys in the young draft pick Sinorce Moss this week. The thing that makes the Giants good, is not all the speed, but the ability of Manning to run that offense. The public is on the Giants, but not to the degree they are in some other games.

I think everybody is down on the Giants for their 2 losses in a row, and high on tennesse for thier win in philly last week and their competitive play in the past few weeks. The Giants reverse the trend and win tommorow.

Philly @ Indy

I didn't intend for such a large play on this game and I still may change my mind and reduce the number of units on this game.

I could talk about this game for a long time but it basically comes down to the colts bouncing back. A lot of the stuff that "could" go wrong in the Dallas game " did" go wrong. Tony Romo could have been the goat of the game if it weren't for a holding call on that interception that was called back. The safety that picked off the ball had nothing to do with the hold. Before everybody turns into a Romosexual, remember that he has been dodging bullets. I know everybody is impressed with his good plays, but he has been fortunate enough to miss some of those bad plays. Bill Parcells talks about how they are shooting bullets at him, but he has been dodging them. I see what parcells sees, and a guy that has takes some chances and has been lucky in avoiding some mistakes.

Side Note: Romo reminds me more of Jake Delhomme than Brett Favre. I also think those smiles won't be so cute anymore when he throws a 2 or 3 interception game.

There is no doubt in my mind that Peyton Manning could execute over that Eagles defense. I think they have been trying to score in a more controlled way to keep the defense off the field. Instead of just scoring, I have a suspicion that they try and run a more controlled offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see the colts take off the gloves this game and go downfield more. I wouldn't be surprised if the colts put up some points this game.

I think Jeff Garcia is a perfect vet backup for the Eagles, but this will be a really hard slot for him. I think Garcia can put up some numbers, but I don't think he out duels Peyton this game. The biggest fear for me would be Bryan Westbrook, but I think as high as the -400 money line is, it should probably be higher. Donovan Mcnabb was the man in Philly, and now he's out.

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