Saturday, January 03, 2009

Wildcard card

Season long picks from preseason
Browns Under 8 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units WIN
Ravens Under 6 wins +100, 2 units to win 2 units LOSS
Colts OVER 11 wins +140, 2 units to win 2.8 units WIN
Colts to win Super Bowl +900, 2.5 units to win 22.5 PLACED
Week 16 addition I had to jump on
Peyton Manning to win MVP +350, 2.5 units to win 8.75 WIN
= + 11.75 units I won after those wages were graded.

Week 17
Buffalo +6 ( 2 units) LOSS
Miami +3 ( 2 units) WIN
Houston -2.5 ( 2 units) WIN
NY Giants 1st half +3.5 ( 2 unit) WIN
Steelers 1st half -7 ( 1 unit) WIN
4-1 ATS = + 5 units on the week!

Wild card
Colts -1 ( 5 units)
Eagles -3 ( 5 units)( line was 3.5 before, I can't believe it went back down to 3)

Some stats/write ups can be found in my last posting. My leans are Arizona, Indy, Miami ATS and Philly. However I am NOT playing all of those games but people often ask me my opinions.

Some of the top reasons FOR ARIZONA
- Kurt Warner is a vet QB, Matt Ryan is a rookie on the road
- Arizona was 6-2 at home
- Atlanta was an average 4-4 on the road
- Arizona outscored opponents 30-22 on average at home
- Atlanta is outscored by opponents 19-20 on average on the road
- Arizona could score, will the rookie be able to match scores on the road?
- Atlanta has Grady Jackson, John Abraham, Curtis Loftin, Lawyer Milloy Questionable
- Arizona is getting 2 points as a home dog
- More people ( the public) have bet on Atlanta

The reason why I am NOT playing Arizona
Arizona's last 10 games 5-5, but they were 0-5 vs good teams, but 5-0 vs crap
@ NE L 7-47 ( Got crushed by a border line playoff team)
MIN L 14-35 ( lost by 3 TD's to a playoff team)
@ Phi L 20-48 ( embarrassed by playoff team on NAT TV)
NYG L 29-37 ( lost to a playoff team)
@ CAR L 23-27 ( lost to a playoff team

Seattle W 34-21 ( Seattle is a crappy non playoff team)
STL W 34-10 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
@ SEA W 26-20 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
SF W 29-24 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)
@ STL W 34-13 ( beat a crappy non playoff team)

New England didn't make the playoffs ( although they are clearly better than Arizona), but every time the Cardinals played a decent team, they lost, every time they played the trash of the NFC West they won ( and not even always by much). I have NOT followed Atlanta much this year, they are one of the teams that I honestly watched the least and I am NOT playing this game. The Falcons are the better team, the Cards are in the better situation, rookie QB, team that can't beat anybody good etc. etc. etc. You could bet this game but the player doesn't get much edge either way. I initially leaned the over, but Atlanta is goes under on the road. Ideally I'd like to see Atlanta with a first half lead, a low 2nd half total, and watch Arizona try and throw to come back. I DO feel comfortable betting the over at a cheaper number, but this game is a no play. I worked hard for my season winnings and I am not betting on these teams.

Reasons for my Large Indy wager
- The Colts have the best player in the NFL, I put a premium on that in a 1 game setting.
- Once Tom Brady was injured, you had to lean Peyton Manning to win in a QB dominated NFL.
- For much of 2006 the Colts were undefeated, people were talking about them going undefeated, they lost some games but won it all. In 2007, they lost to Indy, but still had a strong campaign. In 2008 they started off with massive injuries, but the same core group of champions have won everything in sight. They are a wild card team but have as good a shot as anybody at winning it all. In fact, I pick Indy in the super bowl. They have already beaten Pitt in Pitt this year, the Titans, SD @ SD and I'd put my money on Manning again. In short, this team is underrated right now. A win is a win is a win. When you see a point spread -1, I will take the team that knows how to win and did it 9 straight times in a row.
- The Colts were heavily injured at the start of the year, but as people are coming back, they have done nothing but win. I couldn't believe how little Manning had to work with early in the year, but you put a decent team around the maestro and they win.
- The Colts do NOT drop off on the road. Some teams are historically Dr. Jeckle/Mr. Hyde home and away ( yes Seattle, I am looking at you), but Peyton Manning is not fazed by playing on the road. He is the most prepared QB in the NFL ( even so much that the guy is breaking in game balls before games), now do you think Mike Vick was breaking in 50 game balls with the equipment manager before games or was betting on dog fights and getting high?
- SD has LT questionable ( he will play) and Gates. Anything to help slow those 2 down helps.
- The public is on Indy, but the public doesn't always lose.
- SD has won 4 in a row, but who did they beat?
Den ( great offense, terrible defense = average non playoff team in weak division)
TB ( The team slid at the end of the year, borderline playoff team and best win for SD)
KC ( Horrible team)
Oak ( Horrible team)
Credit them with going 4-0 but it is no that impressive considering where they were before that
Atlanta ( lost to a playoff team)
Indy ( lost to the team about to beat them again)
@ Ptt ( lost and even lost by more considering the called back Troy P TD)
KC ( one again beat a crappy team, they only won by 1 point as well)
NO ( lost in London to a border line playoff team)
@ Buffalo ( lost to a below average bills team)

So SD was losing to everybody and anybody before beating some average/bad teams and people are all over for them for what reason? They were an 8-8 football team, led by Norv Turner in the crappiest divison in pro football. They lost their star player and THIS IS NOT THEIR YEAR! If you even want to get conspiracy theorist on me, the NFL wants Peyton Manning to go play Jeff Fischer and the Titans and then a rematch with Pitt. Indy was the better team, with the better record, in the better division, with the better QB and the team isn't phased to play on the road. Colts -1 for 5 units please.

I will spare your the Miami/Ravens write up but you can access my prior posting concerning the Ravens forcing turnovers and Miami NOT turning the ball over. It is very possible that that Atlanta/Miami's turn around seasons end here, but can they cover???

Philly can beat anybody in the NFL ( I am mostly scared about them for the Giants in the NFC), but they can play down to competition and lose to anybody in the NFL. Earlier in the season, it looks like Donovan didn't give a shit when in his big fat Parka in a tie game to the Bengals. After being benched, he had the eye of the tiger again. The Eagles had ripped off impressive wins and they are BETTER than their record indicates as they are 10-6 ATS. The Vikings on the other hand have the worst starting QB in the entire playoffs. They were 6-10 ATS and were 9,000 seats short of a sell out for their first hosted playoff in years. The NFL should black this game out, and they gave the people of Minnesota an extension but this game could be blacked out. The Eagles are the better team, they have had some struggles on the road but they can beat anybody when they want to. Today, they want to. Andy Reid's job could be in the line.

1 more thing... Look at all my picks, Arizona, Indy, Miami, Philly
Kurt Warner > Rookie Matt Ryan
Peyton MVP Manning > Priscilla cry baby Rivers
Penny > Rookie Flacco
Sir Donovan > Terrible Tavaras Jackson

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]