Saturday, September 09, 2006

Week 1

Bankroll 50 units

This weeks plays
New England ML -355 ( 17 units)
Philly -3.5 ( 5 units)
Dallas +3 ( bought hook) (5 units)____________________________________________________________________________Thursday Pick ( no play)Miami +1 @ PittsburghLeans Loss

for the rest of the week... I can't do full writeups, but I will try and put a few notes. I only played three games, but I decided to pick the rest for fun.

( picks highlighted )
Denver -3.5 @ Stl ---- The Broncos are clearly better team. Denver should be able to run the ball on that fast carpet, and I am not sold on the new coach and change in philosophy in Stl.

New York Jets @ Tennesse -2.5 --- Tennesse is traditionally a tough place to play. Fischer is still a solid coach, and I think the tennesse will run the ball. Titans have trouble tackling on D, but face a rookie RB.

Baltimore +3 @ Tampa Bay --- A game dominated by defense. Steve Mcnair and his Ravens make a statement over Chris Simms and the Bucs.

Cincy @ Kansas City -2 --- KC is a very tough place to play. Cincy has trouble stopping the run, and they face the Cheifs and LJ. I don't like to bet against Carson Palmer, but winning in KC is no easy task. This pick is more agains the Bengals rush D, than against Carson Palmer.

Seattle @ Detroit +6 --- The sucker bet of the week. Everybody and their mom is on Seattle, but any given sunday there are upsets. Seattle lost the superbowl here in Detroit 8 months ago. Detroit's defense isn't bet, Mike Martz has some weapons on offense, and he used to own seattle when he coached the rams. Seattle isn't as good on the road, and they are a west coast team traveling east.

Atlanta +5 @ Carolina ---- I like the prospects on Carolina this year, but this is a tough divisonal battle. Everybody loves Carolina for how they played in the playoffs last year, but this team sometimes plays poorly as a favorite. Sometimes you ask yourself, " Which Carolina will show up"?

New Orleans @ Cleveland -3 --- Reggie Bush and that Saints offense is getting a lot of love by the media, but Romeo should be able to slow them down some. I think Cleveland grinds out a run the ball and play defense kind of game. New Orleans defense is bad.

Chicago @ Green Bay +3.5 --- Green Bay is traditionally a hard place to play. Last year Chicago won a lot of close games, and Green Bay lost a lot of close ones. Grossman might actually have to make some plays and GB is a home dog.

San Fran @ Arizona -9 --- Look for Arizona to run up the score on a bad San Fran road team. Edge will make the whole team better, and the Cards will put up some points to break in their new stadium.

Indy -3 @ New York --- In the battle of the Mannings, Peyton will show why he is the better quarterback.

Minnesota @ Washington -4.5 --- Washington has lost some of that hype after a terrible pre season that saw the starters get outscored 52-0. It might not be pretty, but I see the redskins winning and the hype machine being turned on again.

San Diego @ Oakland +3 --- I have to go with the dog at home here. The Phillip Rivers era opens on the road at the black hole. I could see Aaron Brooks playing better than you think and the RAIDAZ pulling off the upset.

I do NOT recommend betting. If it were that easy to win money, they wouldn't be building new casinos in Las Vegas each year. If a pick ever looks too good to be true, then it probably is. People that win money get a false sense of security and end up losing in the long run. Winnings lead to bigger bets and then bigger losses. If you are going to cross my advice, then make small picks "for fun".

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