Thursday, September 21, 2006

Week 3 sucker bet

The sucker bet is an underdog that nobody likes. It's a fools gold pick, a tradtional "trap", or game that looks too good to be true.

Week 1 - Seattle @ Detriot
This is what fools gold is all about. Everybody and their mom picked seattle ( the superbowl loser, to go destroy the Lions... Not only did the lions cover, but they almost won.

Week 2- Carolina @ Minnesota
I liked the 49ers to beat the rams, but that was more of a regular home dog winning. Nobody thought the line was right on the panthers/vikings game. Not only did Minnesota cover, but they won a shocker in overtime.

This weeks pick: Cleveland Browns

Baltimore @ Cleveland +6.5. Cleveland is already at +7 at bodog, and should hit +7 at the other books. Right now 86% of the bets are on the Ravens making Baltimore the publics favorite play.

The public has seen the Ravens win impressivly on the road in tampa, and beat up the raiders at home. The Brownies Lost a close one in week 1 at home to the Saints, and they lost to the Bengals.

I'll be the first to admit that I am not high on the Browns this year. In fact, I have the Browns season win total UNDER 7 wins. However I did count on the Browns to go 2-4 in the division, and I think they have a chance at winning this game outright...

I do think the Ravens are a quality team ( even a super bowl contender), but this will be a hard fought game. There has been a lot of bad blood in this rivalry ever seen Art Modell packed up from "the mistake by the lake" and took his franchise to Baltimore. It is a battle of the "old cleveland browns, against the cleveland browns". The city is still pissed off, and the game is at the dog pound in Cleveland.

- The last time these teams met, the Browns actually beat the Ravens 20-16 and Charlie Frye was the QB. I like the Fact that the Browns are at home where Romeo and C-Frye have already beaten this ravens squad.

I would also like to point out is the Injuries for Baltimore...
S. Rolle Prob
A. Franklin Ques
P.Daniels Ques
J. Ogden Ques ***
A. Thomas Ques *
M. Smith Ques
J. Lewis Ques *
R. Lewis Ques *

- That's 5 potential probowlers who are at the very least banged up. S. Rolle will play, and probably 2 or 3 of the other five hurt guys. I am not the kind of capper that just says ( Player A is hurt so this team is done), but I feel these are some key injuries. The biggest Injury for me is Ogden. In the first 2004 meeting, Johnathan Ogden was hurt and the Browns Kenard Lang dominated the backup Left tackle with 3 sacks. The Browns were 3.5 pt dogs and they won 20-3.

- Jamal Lewis is banged up, but the guy rushed for 89, 59, 81, 57 yards in their last 4 meetings. I'd have to bet that Lewis ( or mike anderson) will rush for UNDER 100 yards in an ugly sloppy game.

- Another small fact is the fact that Charlie Frye is used to seeing a 3-4 defense in practice. Not only has Frye already beat this Ravens D before, but he might not be a little better prepared against them since he is used to seeing that lineup.

- We all know that Winslow as calling out the offense in the media this week. This could either mean positive reaction, or negative reaction. I am not about the predict the Browns offense will go banannas against the ravens, but we could see them a little more aggressive on offense.

- The Ravens beat up the Raiders and went into tampa and won, but I think this will be a harder game than people think in this heated rivalry. I think personally think Romeo will try and turn this into an ugly, defensive battle. I think that even if the Ravens get a lead, they will take away some of that aggressiveness which can lead to a backdoor cover or just a low scoring game. With all the money on the Ravens, I also wouldn't be suprised to see the ball bounce the Browns way, and the Zebras to help out the Brownies as well. I think the public jumped on the ravens bandwagon a little too hard, and this is one of the 2 divisonal games the Browns will win

Ravens 9 Browns 13

Week 3 plays tab
Eagles ML 5 units
Eagles -6 ( 2.5 units)
Redskins ML 5 units

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