Saturday, September 30, 2006

Week 4

Washington +3 ( 2.5 units)
Indy -1/ Baltimore +9 ( 2 unit teaser)
leans NE +6, Carolina -7, Oakland +2.5 , detroit +6

Colts -8 @ Jets . Manning and the boys will exploit this Jets D.
Arizona +7.5 @ Atlanta . The Falcons could win this game, but I think the Cards will put up some points on that fast surface. Without John Abraham, Hurt Warner could have time to operate. If Atlanta wins you figure the score to be lower, if Arizona wins it could be higher scoring, or they could cover the spread in a higher scoring game also.
Dallas -9.5@ Tennesse. Tennesse starts the Vince Young era, and it will begin with a loss. That tennesse defense has problems tackeling, and dallas should come off the bye week with a double digit win.
Miami @ Houston +3.5. Both teams have looked terrible thus far. Houston has looked terrible against Indy, philly and washington, while Miami has looked terrible against Charlie Batch Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennesse.
Minnesota -1 @ Buffalo. The Viqueens are 3-0 against the spread so far. Playing on the road is difficult in the NFL, but they do have a vet QB who can handle it. JP Losman is not a very good quarterback.
New Orleans @ Carolina -7. The saints are due for a let down after last weeks feel good story on National TV. Carolina needs to get back on track, and they win this game by MORE than a possession.
San Diego @ Baltimore +2. West coast teams have a tough time traveling east an playing 1pm kickoffs, it might be 1pm in Baltimore but it will still feel like 10am to the Tan Diego players. SD will be coming off a bye, so they could come out fresh or they could come out rusty. San Diego beat up two weaker opponents, but with a week off, and facing a tought baltimore D, it could start off slow. Phillip Rivers also faces his first test on the road. Baltimore pulled off a win last week in a game they deserved to lose. Gimme Baltimore and the points.
SF @ KC -7. I know Trent Green is still out, but I think Larry Johnson can re-introduce himself to fans and fantasy football players this week. Alex Smith has improved this year, but KC and their sea of red is always tough on opponents.
Detroit +6 @ St. Louis. Mike Martz returns to st. louis with a detroit offense that is so close to scoring 40 points that it's silly ( according to them). I see Detroit as a very live dog, so I will certainly take the 6 points.
Cleveland @ Oakland +2.5. They don't call them the faiders for nothing, oakland has been embarassed thus far. I think they had some soul searching to do during that bye week and they should play pissed off. To their defense, they did get beat by two very good defensive teams ( Baltimore/San Diego).
Jacksonville @ Washington +3 ( sucker bet special)I took washington + 3 earlier in the week. Byron Leftwhich is from DC and will try to win the game rather than manage it. I can see Jacksonville making the key mistakes in a defensive stalemate.
New England +6 @ Cincy. New England doesn't like losing 2 games in a row. The Pats have shifted their focus on offense more to the running game. The Bengals could have trouble stopping the Pats run, and keeping Carson Palmer and the offense on the field.
Seattle @ Chicago -3.5. I think Maurice Morris could fill in well for Shaun Alexander, but neither guy would run very well on this Bears D. Seattle isn't as good on the road, and I think the whole Sunday night crew will spend their time telling everybody " the bears are for real", the same way they were hyping up jacksonville. I think fans are reluctant to jump on those defensive teams bandwagons, but ESPN will do their best to sell you these teams.
Green Bay @ Philly -11. I don't think many people are giving the fudge packers much of a chance in this game. The only thing I would worry about as an eagles backer is the moose or backdoor cover late in the game. Both the Giants and San Fran mounted combacks as Andy Reid packed up and started eating donuts on the sidelines.

Last Week 7-7
Total= 21- 25
W1 5-11
W2 9-7
W3 7-7

Suckers bets 3-0

Plays are with a 50 unit bankroll, and I am up 20 units
8-3 ATS
2-0 ML
1-0 ML parlay
1-0 Quarter Lines
3 winning weeks, 0 losing weeks

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