Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Final 4 teams

New England @ Indy
Naw Awlans @ Da Bears

If you will take a look back at my playoff predictions you will see that I did NOT get every game right. I didn't even do ATS picks last week. The two teams I have in the Superbowl are both alive and kicking though.

This weekend Da Bears are a slight 1 point favorites, and the Pats are underdogs against their rivaled Colts. I am going to stick with my prediction of Bears and Pats in the big dance. I also have a futures bet where I win a fat 45 units if the Pats win it all! No joke, check out one of my older posts. I laid 7.5 units on the Pats to win 45. I will be scrambling around trying to see if I can possibly get some action on the other side as a hedge ( 45 units is huge). I took 7.5 units worth of winnings in hope for the big pay day considering my bankroll was 50 units.

I can honestly day that I DVR-ed the games and did not watch every second of every game. I'm sort of glad that I didn't sit there glued to the TV the whole weekend to analyze every single play because my opinion on a team is not going to change from one game. Billy Beane is the A's General Manger who doesn't even watch his team play because he doesn't want to be biased. Look, all the games were close this weekend, and we shouldn't put TOO much thought into a win OR a loss.

A lot of people are on the Saints ( somewhere around 70%) and that is too high. I'll take the Bears minus 1. The reason why the Bears are only 1 point favorites is because of Grossman. Everybody remembers those terrible games he has had, but I'd like to see the Bears run Thomas Jones. Did you see that TD run Jones had in which HE wasn't touched and neither was his lead blocker?

There is a big difference between playing on carpet, and going out into the cold to play the Bears. Dome teams don't win outside in December in the cold in NFC championship games. The Saints are so predicated on that passing game too, that it will be difficult to get those body parts moving out on the grass in the cold. Did you ever wonder why those Rams teams didn't win when they got out into the cold and on the carpet?

I love the fact that NO just played indoors on the carpet, and now they go outside, on grass, in the cold. That is a natural recipe for slowing a game down. The Bears Offense doesn't have to win the game, they can play into the Saints losing the game.

Take a look at who the final 4 teams are...
Pats- Brady, BB and the defense
Colts - Manning
Saints - Brees
Bears - Bears D

We pretty much have the three best quarterbacks in the league. The Bears are the 4th team, and they made it because of a very good defense, good run game, and weak schedule. When the Bears are rolling, they sort of remind me of Pittsburgh last year. Their defense is good, their QB isn't the best, their run game is underrated and they will fight out games. So the final four teams are all based on top notch QB play or top notch defense and none of them are mobile quarterbacks.

I hope to get some action on Chicago -1 and maybe a hedge against the Pats.

The Pats game could be one of the best ever. Two titans clash, and Peyton Manning will be scrutinized for every move he makes. Even if he wins, the media still might choose to crucify him by making the story that " Freeney or the defense bailed him out". Manning is a guy that they just love to hate sometimes. They would just love for the guy in the sweatshirt to outsmart Manning again and have Manning pissed off and throwing his teammates under the bus.

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