Friday, February 02, 2007

Super Bowl 41

So the big game is finally here. The Super Bowl. Super bowl squares and the masses are drawn into the big game. Everybody has an opinion on the big game even non-football fans. Everybody has their own amateur forecast too, " If the colts can pass, they will win". " If the Bears can run the ball and play D, they will win".

Everybody has these "If, then" statements carefully planned out so when their predicted team losses, they can always say " well, the IF part never happened".

Now most people have lived long enough to witness quite a few upsets in their life. If the Bears go ahead and upset the Colts, it would not even be close to one of the greatest upsets of all-time. It wouldn't even be the greatest upset in the past 10 years ( the New England Patriots were 14 point underdogs against the rams a few years back).

Now I understand that most people can imagine a scenario where the Bears will win the big game, but it's just not going to happen. Stop picturing a boring, ugly, defensive game were the Bears eek out a win. The Colts won the Super Bowl last week when they beat the Patriots.

The Colts didn't come this far to lose the big game. The two week layoff gives Brainiac Peyton Manning an extra week to prepare. The Bears defense is NOT the same without Tommy Harris wreaking havoc in the middle and they won't be on a frozen grass field in 2 degree weather to help slow down the opposing offense. The Bears run a similar cover 2 defense that Peyton Manning sees everyday in practice ( now I understand that Bears run it BETTER), but that familiarity benefits Peyton. It's not like the Bears D, gets to see Rex Grossman dissect them and tear them to shreds every day in practice.

Now I am not going to break this game down, because it has already been broken down a million ways. So don't out think yourself, The Colts will win and cover the spread. I know it's sexy to pick the upset but it's not going to happen this year.

I always get asked about the Total as well. The Over/Under is pegged at 48 and despite the grass field, I think the game goes OVER.

My plays
I have futures on the Colts to win it all. 12.5 units to win 18.75

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