Friday, September 07, 2007

Week 1 Card

Week 1 Card
NO/Indy 2nd half over 24.5 ( 5 units) ----->WON
Philly -2.5 ( 5.75 units)
Giants +6 ( 5 units)
Cleveland +5 ( 2 units) sucker bet special
Carolina +1.5 ( 2 units)
Washington -3 ( 2 units)

Pending Futures
Philly 36/1 to win Super Bowl
Patriots 12/1 and 10/1 to win Super Bowl

NO/Indy 2nd half over 24.5 (Beted)( 5 units) ( won)

Philly -2.5 ( 5.75 units at beted)

Philly has won the last 6 meetings since 2002
I wouldn’t usually put too much significance into that, but these games were Mcnabb vs Favre for what it is worth.

Last time they played in Green Bay was 02’ ( the other 5 games were in Philly)
Donovan completed less than 50% of his passes
- Fred ex Mitchell and Todd Stinkston were his leading targets with 3 catches a piece
- Favre was helped by Ahman Greens 192 yards rushing
- and the Eagles still won by 3 despite the poor performance

In the 5 games in Philly, Mcnabb had a 5 TD game vs GB, a 100+ yard rushing game, and a 400 + yard passing game mixed in there. The GB defense is being rebuilt, but Mcnabb is an MVP candidate this year and will be the best QB in the NFC.

Last year these teams played in Philly and the Eagles won 31-9. Favre had 2 picks and 0 touchdowns. We all remember the visuals of him just lobbing up a ball to Brian Dawkns in the playoffs.

- The Eagles run D hasn’t been spectacular, but the Green Bay team they are facing is not only starting a rookie running back, but a rookie running back coming off a concussion injury. I have Brandon Jackson on my fantasy team ( when you can get a starting running back in a west coast offense in the 15th round, you do it), but this is a tough start for him.

- I’d expect that defense to come after Favre. They basically have a 2 unit hockey rotation of a D-Line. They can blitz and substitute, to keep the pressure on Favre all day. Not only that, but Favre targets a huge percentage of his passes to Donald Driver. If the defense knows where the quarterback wants to throw it, they have a huge advantage when mixing up their coverages.

When trying to pick an upset proof team, you want to look at how the turnover battle is going to go. Donovan has been very efficient thus far in his career as far as throwing interceptions goes. It is much more likely that Favre will be throwing picks when facing the Philly blitz, then Donovan against Green Bay. It is also more likely that Brandon Jackson, a rookie coming off a concussion injury will be fumbling in his first NFL start over Pro Bowl Brian Westbrook.

This road game won’t be easy for Philly. More of the public is on Philly and I generally like fading the public, but the public doesn’t always lose. I think this line is at -3, because the packers were 8-8 last year and only a couple games back of Philly. However, the Packers were a 4-8 team until they picked up 4 cheap wins at the end of their season to look a respectable 8-8. I believe Philly turns the corner this year and marches on through the NFC and it all starts in week 1.

New York Giants +6 ( 5 units at Beted)

Eli Manning is 3-2 against Dallas
The Giants beat Dallas in Dallas last year while at full strength
The Giants lost to Dallas last year by 3 during their stretch of massive injuries.

Dallas lost their hall of fame coach, and the Giants replaced their pro bowl running back with the best backup in the league, yet the spread is at 6?

This is good value with the Giants on a team that has a pretty good shot to win the game. The line should really be more like Dallas -3, but the Giants are getting an additional 3 points added. I think the Giants will be a surprising team this year and exceed the low expectations the media has set for them.

- Eli has thrown 48 touchdown passes in his first 2 years as a starter
- He’s won the division
- He’s had his team as the 3rd playoff team in the division, despite the hardest schedule in the league last year

Despite the Giants having intrinsic value with their 6 point spread, more of the public is still on dallas. Not only do I like fading the public, but I really like fading the public on nationally televised games. The public uses a Sunday or Monday night game as “ the ultimate chaser” on the money they lost on Sunday at 1PM and 4PM.

I have a lot of situations I really like.
- Undervalued Giants value at +6
- Fading the public
- Fading the public on a nationally televised game
- Dallas losing their HOF coach, and they are breaking in a new coach
- Giants should at least be competitive ( they won in Dallas last year), they have a good shot at winning outright, never mind covering +6.

Also, the Dallas passing game has three main threats…
TO at WR
Glenn at WR
And Witten at TE

Terry Glenn is a very underrated receiver (due to his age), and he is out with injury. The biggest worry for the Giants is Jason Witten at tight end, because Antionio Pierce isn’t athletic enough to defend him. I’d hope the Giants use safety help, or bring somebody else in to defend him on 3rd and long situations. Dallas really went after this match up in the 2nd game in NY last year. They went after Witten early and in crunch time, when he had the back breaking play to lead to dramatic Martin Gramatica field goal.

I really think the Giants pull the upset here on Sunday night ( the dog on the nationally televised game), but even if they don’t win, all they have to do is cover 6, and they should certainly do that.

Sucker bet/ fools gold

Cleveland +5 ( Bodog)( 2 units)

The Steelers have owned the Browns for the last 7 straight games. Last year in Cleveland, the Steelers only won by 4 with the Browns using Jason White at Running back, and a young Charlie Frye at QB. In fact, the Steelers had to score 21 4th quarter points to win, and it was a sucker bet last year. I think that was the game where if Braylon Edwards caught a ball in the end zone, the Brownies would have won.

The public is all over the Steelers in this one at over 75%. Last year the Steelers were 3-5 on the road and they were a considerably better home team. The Browns have both their quarterback and head coach on the hot seat. Jamal Lewis is an upgrade at running back, and this sounds crazy, but I think Brady Quinn brings new life to this Browns franchise ( even if he is on the bench). The Browns O-Line should be better due to health and the same with their defense. I’d expect the Browns to go out there and fight hard against a division rival, in a new season with new expectations when everybody is still 0-0. The Browns may not win this game, but they will fight and keep it close.

Washington -3 ( 2 units)

I don’t have that much statistical backing, but I just think Washington is going to win this game. Both teams match up strength against strength and weakness against weakness. The Dolphins O-Line sucks, while the Redskins D-Line sucks. The Redskins O-Line is good, while the Fins have a very formidable front 7. The Dolphins were a terrible 2-6 on the road last year, while Washington was better at home.

The Fins must also deal with a new coach, and QB, and Trent Green will be coming back to Washington. Fed Ex field will be loud, and the Redskins front runner fans will be talking their trash at work on Monday after the win. Those same dorky Redskins fans will get a dose of Reality next weekend when they lose to Philly.

Carolina +1.5 ( 2 units)

St. Louis seems to be the public play here. Everybody wants Bulger, SJack, and Holt on their fantasy team, but the NFL is more than fantasy football. Carolina has beaten the Rams 3 times in a row, and the Rams offense will have to face the arguably the best D-Line in football. Grass surfaces have been known to throw the Rams “finesse” offense out of sync, but I think Carolina can do that with their horses up front. The Rams have started to pound the ball more with Jackson last year, but I think the Panther linebackers will be better this year with those boys from the U.

On the other side of the ball, the Panther offense ditched their bum coach (Dan Henning) calling the plays. Their duel running backs will be facing a weak Rams D, and Steve Smith will be covered ( or left open) by Tyrone Hill.

Do I like the Rams offense… of course, especially at home
Do I like the Rams defense, certainly not.

It’s not which offense is better and will therefore score more points, you have to understand it is the Rams offense versus the Carolina D, and the Panthers offense against the weak Rams D. I just see the Panthers as a more balanced team. The Panthers also have been known to thrive in the underdog role. Delhomme might not be a stud, but he can win on the road.

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