Saturday, September 15, 2007

Week 2 Card

Week 2
Jacksonville -10 ( 1 unit)
Tennessee + 8.5 ( 2 units)Beted * Sucker bet special
SF + 3 ( 2 units)
Carolina -7 ( 3 units)
Det -3 ( 2 units)
Arizona + 3 ( 2 units)
Chicago – 12.5 ( 1 unit)

SD + 3.5
Philly -7

Bobby Petrino installed his new offense in Atlanta and they scored 3 points last week, while they gave up 2 defensive touchdowns. Harrington was Harrington, Warrick Dunn was stuffed by the two big defensive tackles, and I don’t see why their offense would play much better on grass against this Jags defense.

The Jags aren’t going to start the season 0-2 at home, and they probably do win by double digits. The offense isn’t that great, but they should run the ball better, and hopefully they will have a lot of short fields to work with.

Tennessee sucker bet special
Everybody really wants to play Peyton Manning after his team won the super bowl and dominated on national tv last week. The fact of the matter is that the colts don’t travel nearly as well ( 4-4 on road last year), and Tennessee is very much a live dog.

- Last year Tennessee lost to the Colts 14-13 and then beat them in Tennessee last year 20-17.
- It is surprising, but the Titans had the best record in the division last year at 4-2 ( Colts 3-3). If this was college football / SEC rules, Manning would have lost the SEC championship in Tennessee last year.
- Titans have the best record ATS in their last 10, going 9-1 at the pay window.
- The Titans went into Jacksonville last week and beat a solid team, and they out rushed them as well. New Orleans game turned one dimensional in the dome for the Colts and made the defense look better than they are. If the Titans play physical, run the ball, and keep it close…
- The Titans have a coaching advantage. Fisher tricked Fungy into foolishly wasting his last timeout in the 2nd meeting last year, that allowed Bironas to attempt that last kick and win the game.
- The public is loving the Colts, but the only real advantage I see them having this game is through the air with their passing attack, 8.5 points is too much for a live home dog.

San Fran- The Rams offense wasn’t in sync last week, but neither was the 49ers offense. I thought the Cardinals defense played pretty good, and that Frank Gore has a chance get some stats this weekend against the Rams. Alex Smith didn’t play that well last week, but maybe he can run some decent high percentage plays like Carolina had last week, and have similar success. The 49ers didn’t have that great of a pass rush last week, but the secondary covered pretty well. I think the Rams offense was noticeably worse last week when Pace got hurt, and I didn’t see that same home field advantage in St. Louis that I was used to seeing. The game was within 2 possessions and many of the fans left early in St. Louis. I do think it is possible that San Fran jumps out to a 2-0 start. You have to like a live dog with high seasonal expectations against the Rams who just lost their left tackle.

I see Carolina starting out their season not just 1-0, but 2-0 after Houston, and then 3-0 after next weekend. If the Panthers win this game, I do think they cover. This is Matt Schaubs first career road start and even though he was ok last weekend, this is a better defense and on the road.

I was close to betting on Houston last weekend, and I am not surprised they won. I understand the trends with Carolina being a play as a dog, and a fade as a favorite, but I still like them winning this game.

Minnesota has a good rush D, but their pass D is suspect. That is a great match up for the Lions who pass and don’t care about running the ball. They put up points last week on a decent Oakland defense. They did get help on a defensive touchdown, but they were able to move the ball.

Shaun Rodgers is a beast in the middle, and I was critical of the big money Dwayne white got, but he looked pretty good last week. This play is also a fade on Tavaras Jackson. If you took away a 1 yard screen pass that turned into a 60 yard touchdown, then Jackson didn’t do anything except get undeserved hype.

I also think that if the Lions are losing, they have the offensive fire power to have a chance to come back. If Tavaras Jackson is losing, the Vikings are screwed. The guy had down right dangerous plays while not securing the ball while being tackled, and had throws that missed his receivers so bad it was hilarious. Give the Lions their win at home. I don’t buy the historical trend of the Vikings win streak against Detroit, Fumblepepper throwing bombs to Randy Moss has nothing to do with Tavaras Jackson throwing interceptions.

Leinart and the offense had their problems, but the defense looked better ( especially considering they were on the road). Adrian Wilson was often down in the box, and he helped shut down Frank Gore.

At this point in his career, Gore is better than Shaun Alexander. Alexander is getting older, has a ton of carries, and his banged up. M. Morris is hurt, and Seattles best receiver is wearing a 49ers uniform.

The Arizona defense could just be better because of strength and conditioning coach John Lott, and the fact that they weren’t on the field the entire game. I really feel like Arizona played decent enough that they probably should have won in San Fran last weekend ( even with the offense not playing that well).

Arizona also had the best record against the division last year at 4-2 and they beat Seattle last year. I think they will be a live home underdog that has a decent chance of winning. I was more impressed by Arizona going into San Fran than Seattle beating up on Luke Mccown. I didn’t see their whole game, but the offense looked shaky, and if Arizonas defense plays the same as last week, they win. This is also a good fade of the public.

If KC couldn’t do anything in Houston last week, what makes you think that Herm and the 1 dimensional, boring/conservative offense will get on track in Chicago? Chicago pretty much shut down LT, and the Chiefs offense isn’t as good as the Chargers. The Chiefs plan on running LJ and that isn’t going to happen. I expect a lot of punts to Hester and this game could get out of hand ( short fields = points). KC isn’t a good road team (3-5 LY despite making the playoffs), and I expect Huard to come back down to earth now that he’s the man.

Depending on how Sunday goes I am looking to play SD + 3.5 and Philly -7 in prime time.

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