Thursday, September 27, 2007

Week 4 Card

Week 4
6 units on Indy -3/ NE -.5 teaser
2 units on NY Jets -3 ( bought the hook)
2 units on Green Bay -3 ( +110)

I will probably go out of town tommorow, so I am trying to keep it light. I will fade the young and ineffective QBs like Trent Edwards, Reggie Ball/HoldCum, Cutler, with Carson mixed in there. I also found a good week to go with 2 horses ( NE and Indy). I might add some action on the Giants/Eagles sunday nighter too. I am technically having a "losing" season thus far, and I was hit hard by 2 big losses with the Eagles. If Philly didn't start out so bad, I would be up pretty good instead of down pretty good. My record doesn't look good, because of losses on a lot of smaller plays.

1st leg of Teaser - Indy -3 I will take the most efficient offense I have ever seen against the young quarterback in Jay Cutler. Now some people might like the matchup, with denver and their corners against the colts, but I can see Manning just lighting up Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark underneath all day. He will take what the defense gives him.

On the other side of the ball, Cutler is still young and inexperienced, and as shitty as the colts defense is... they are better at home.

2nd leg of Teaser - Patriots -.5 Tom Brady and the Patriots should shred into the Bungles defense like a hot knife through butter. I was curious as to how the Patriots passing game would gel early in the year with all those new parts, and it has gelled in a big way. Now only should the Pats be able to throw all day, but they should be able to run all day as well. I'd be shocked if they scored less than 30 points, and that is even with the possibility of them trying to build a lead and then control the clock.

On the other side of the ball...
Carson meet Bill,
Bill meet Carson.

I think the Colts are an underrated home team ( they haven't lost at home in over 2 years and are considerably better at home), and the Patriots are an underrated road team ( weren't they 7-1 on the road last year plus the win in SD and they don't lose much focus by being on the road?) I also like the numbers... Winning by 3 shouldn't be a problem, and the Patriots are just to win. I like those guys to stay undefeated.

Jets -3 The Bills only have 2 offensive touchdowns on the year. JP Losman stinks, and he is injured. Trent Edwards is a later round pick in his first NFL start. The last 2 times these guys played, the Bills tried to just pound the Jets to the tune of 25-30 carries with Willis + A-Train. If they were going to keep it so simple with JP, they will certainly do that with Trent.

Not only that, but the Bills defense didn't figure to be good this year, and they have injury problems of their own.

This game is a fade of Buffalo as much as anything else. Pennington isn't my favorite NFL starting quarterback, but he is a veteran who has led his team to the playoffs, and he is popping Trent Edwards NFL cherry. I actually like Thomas Jones more than anything the Jets had last year. I think TJ is an underrated back that can get the job done.

Packers -3 I think Green Bays defense is underrated and the more I think about it, the more I see the Packers being that " sleeper team" and that I was wrong about. Their defense shut down Mcnabb and Eli ( who I still think is underrated), and they held LT and San Diego in check too.

Brett Favre might not be vintage Brett Favre, but he is still better than many of the starters in the league, including Tavaras " reggie ball" Jackson and Kelly HoldCum.

The Vikings defense is looking alright, but they are more vulnerable against the pass than the run. Green Bay is better at passing than running.

If you were to even say that both teams had equal defenses, Green Bay has the better offense. I like Adrian Peterson and all, but if Minny is going to average 160 passing yards per game, they are going to have problems.

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