Saturday, September 19, 2009

Week 2 card

Week 2 card

Packers -2/Redskins -3 Teaser ( 3 units)
Patriots -3 ( bought hook) 2.5 units
Kansas City -3 ( 1 unit)
- Pats ML, Pack ML, Vikings ML, Redskins ML, KC -3, Bal/SD Under 40
Parlay ( .25 units to win 2 & 1/8th units).

I am very confident the Packers/Redskins win their games at home against weaker teams. The argument against the Redskins is that Spags ( the rams hc) coached the Giants last year and is "familiar". That's fine and all but I see the Rams having trouble scoring as the Giants were #1 in the league rushing last year and they couldn't do much last week, so what are the Rams going to do?

Why don't I like the Rams offense?
- Their QB didn't play preseason, and doesn't have the timing down with his WR's
- The Rams WR's with L. Robinson/Avery are one of the worst corps in the league and they haven't played with their QB making matters worse.
- The line isn't very good, they have some young guys that are learning on there. Even the #2 pick was physically blown up in the preseason but the real risk of younger guys is mental mistakes.
- Steven Jackson can't do it by himself, especially vs a very stout run defense. That puts the Rams in more 3rd and longs and they won't be able to convert like the Giants did.

The Rams beat the redskins last year. Revenge? They are prone to the other team running the ball and that's actually Washington's strength. Look, if the Lions weren't 0-16 last year, we'd be laughing at the 2-14 Lambs. Washington should win this game by double digits. Maybe they don't score much early, but that Rams run D is prone to big plays.

Packers - They are quite simply the surprise team of 2009. Buy them early in the year, fade the Bengals.

Patriots - The Jets could be a vastly improved surprise team, but everybody watched the Patriots play unimpressive ball vs Buffalo. Yeah, they should have lost, but they still have a lot of potential and beat this Jets team at least 8 out of 10 times. You don't want to bet on what happened, you want to bet on what's going to happen. We all saw the Pats play bad last week, but an average Patriots team beats an average Jets team by more than 4. The reason why the line is -4 instead of -6 or -6.5 is because of the crappy play last week.

Look, every sports book in America had the Patriots as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. In most spots they were 4/1 or so, while the Jets were probably 5 times that. Now after a big Jets win, and a crappy Patriots win you are ready to call this a 4 point game? Really? Look, I saw Tom Brady off just like everybody else, but I wouldn't come to expect that. Is everybodies memory really that small?

KC - I hope Matt Cassell plays but I'd still be happy enough with Brodye Croyle. Once again, the Raiders outplayed SD in almost every aspect of the game last week, except QB. Jemarcus looked horrible, and the Chiefs D-Line isn't bad. The Chiefs sport one of the best home field advantages in sports, so why are they only 3 point favs vs the Raiders? If Cassell can stay healthy, I think KC is probably the 2nd best team in the AFC West. The Raiders lines did play well last week, but how will Jemarcus do on the road against a team with a better QB? The Chiefs actually did better than I thought last week in a tough game at Baltimore. The Raiders did great on national TV at home, but I am pretty sure they lose this one.

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]