Sunday, September 27, 2009

Week 3

Week 1 was nearly flawless
Week 2 was terrible and nothing could go right
Here's week 3

Teaser: NY Giants -.5 + Green Bay -.5 ( 3 units)
Ubet matchup: Indy will score 7 more points than Detroit this week ( 3 units)
Total: Indy/Arizona Over 48 ( 2 units)
ATS: Titans +2 (1.5 units)
ATS: Jaguars +4 ( 1 unit)
Total: Bears/Seattle Under 37 ( 1 unit)
1st Q: Vikings -.5 ( .5 units)
Crazy teaser Parlay: Titans + 8, Indy +9, Indy Over 42, Dallas -2.5, Giants/Washington/Green Bay/Minny just to win ( .25 units pays 15/1).

I think the Giants and Packers are possibly the two best teams in the NFC ( GB hasn't showed it yet) and they are playing two of the crappiest teams in the NFC... Tampa and St. Louis. You have to watch out because they are on the road and the Giants have injuries, but I know that Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers are solid vets and don't get shook on the road.

Indy -7 over Detroit
Beted has a match up tool where you can pick one teams total vs another teams even if they aren't playing. I don't believe at all in Matthew Stafford and I think there are two possibilities today in Detroit and neither of them have the Lions scoring points. Either the Redskins offense finally scores TD's and wins (ATS too), or Detroit and Washington are in a low scoring game that could go either way. I can't really bet on Washington though. Jim Zorn was on the local TV show and I know you can't insult your opponents but he said " Detroit is a good football team, with good players, they just haven't found their groove yet". The interviewer called him out and said this team just lost 19 games in a row! Zorn is a fool.

Indy/Cards *could* be the highest scoring game in this entire NFL season and the O/U is only 48? Really? You might have both teams in the 30's. Indy should score at worst 20 points probably somewhere in the 20's to 30's but certainly more than 20, and Detroit would score at best 17... probably more like 13, 10, or they could even be shut out by what's actually a strong Redskins defense.

- Prime time game that could be the leagues highest scoring game of the year if these offenses go back and forth like we know they can. 48 isn't THAT bad.

Titans +2
Bodog offers this game at +3 but it's juiced to something like -145. I think the Titans who lost 3 games all last year don't go to 0-3. Mark Sanchez has done alright as a game manager but he's facing a top defense that should slow down the Jets run attack. Kerry Collins might not make it look pretty, but this should be a hard fought low scoring game and hopefully he doesn't make mistakes against Rex Ryans defense.

One trend you have here is a dog that won outright, that is favored the following weeek. These teams tend to be over valued and the Jets are getting a lot of hype right now.

Jags +4
Houston is another dog that won outright last week, that is favored this week. Everybody thinks Houston with their good offense wins this week... The thing about Houston though is that their defense sucks. They gave up 24 to a conservative Sanchez, they let both running backs run wild over them last week.. The Jags O-Line isn't bad and I could see them playing conservative and scoring some points without taking as much risk. I'll take the points on a live dog.

Bears/Seattle Under 37
- I like Seattle's defense at home
- I don't like Seneca Wallace
- The Bears defense looks alright
- Jay Cutler still isn't in " his form" yet imo
- The Bears game at Green Bay didn't go over 37, and I doubt this one does.

Vikings 1st Quarter -.5
West coast teams traveling east...
Vikings haven't had a home game yet...
49ers are a run the ball football team... Vikings stop the run
Vikings have played very conservative on offense...

The Crazy Parlay will probably lose due to one of the 4 big favorites ... Giants/GB/Minny/Wash but even as dumb as Jim Zorn sounds " No no no, the Lions are a good football team", they still *should* win. I know the Redskins suck but I don't think the national media picking Detroit understand how shitty Matt Stafford is yet. If Daunte Culpepper was starting I'd pick Detroit, but Matthrew Stafford is so not ready yet.

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