Friday, December 25, 2009

Week 15

5 Units
7 point Teaser: SD Chargers +10, NE Patriots -1
1 Unit
ATS: SD Chargers + 3
ATS: NY Giants -7
ATS: Baltimore Ravens +2.5
6 point Teaser: Indy Colts +.5, Philly Eagles -1

NFL Futures
ADD: NE Patriots 1.25 units to win 15 units @ 11/1 odds
ADD: Philly 1.25 units to win 11.55 units @ 8.25/1 odds
I still have GB Packers futures from the start of the year as well.

The game that I am MOST confident in, is the Patriots to beat the Jaguars. I teased them with the Chargers +10 ( which is very generous) and I like how the games are spaced out into different time slots. If the Chargers lose, I will attempt to win my money back in the Ravens/Patriots teaser of equal value.

9 Game win streak. Phillip Rivers has never thrown 3 picks in a game before in his life. They are becoming a trendy super bowl pick, they beat teams on the road, they beat good teams, they win games in December.... The Titans are also a trendy team since Vince Young has been the starter, but they lost 2 starting LB's. The thing that scares me is the Titans rush offense vs the Chargers rush defense and banged up front 7, but the Chargers can come from behind if needed. Getting an 11-3 team vs a 7-7 team with points is a good prop. I like a live dog on a nationally televised game.

Ideal matchup. A 7-0 "home team" vs a 2-4 team that can't win on the road. Look at Jacksonvilles road losses...41-0 to Seattle... a crappy passing team, 13-30 to the Titans a running team... They beat the Jets by 2 points ...A 20-3 against San Fran... and they just lost two games in a row vs Indy and Miami. Their offense is simple and predictable. They run the ball and make easy throws. Bellicheck's defense has been decent against the run, and he eats up simple QB's for breakfast.

Now let's look at the Patriots.
7-0 at home, with close road losses @ Denver ( 3 point OT Loss), Lost by 1 @ Indy in a game they had won, 1 point loss @ Miami, and got blown out by the Saints in NO. The rest of their last 10 games they won and all of those wins were by double digits.

The Patriots have a very good passing offense, and their run offense is better than it was the past couple of years. The Jaguars weakness on defense is their pass defense.

In all reality the Patriots should win this game by double digits like all of their last wins. Not only do the Patriots win this game, but they should be hosting a playoff game against a weaker team, which puts them into round 2... Against an Indy team they could beat, or against a San Diego team that could turn into a shoot out. I think the Patriots 11/1 futures are worth a buy right now.

The Panthers are a "rushing" offense, and they lost the important cogs of that. They have probably the best run blocking tackles in the league in Gross & Otah and they are both hurt. Deangelo Williams is questionable and the 3rd string back will not play. That leaves the power back Jonathan Stewart and I believe the Giants could slow him down enough to make life hard for Matt Moore. Matt Moore's QB rating is lower in the few road starts he's had, and he is a career 50% passer on the road. Having new Tackles against a pressure packed Giants defense is a formula for turnovers. If the Giants get a lead, they should be able to protect it.

This should be a lower scoring game, but I give the edge to the better team the Ravens, that are getting points. Everybody saw that exciting game game last week vs the packers, but the Steelers have not been playing good football losing to bad teams like Oakland and KC. The Steelers will be missing key guys on defense ( Polomalou and possibly Keisel)... don't get me wrong, the Ravens have injuries too but they have the better defense, better special teams, and their offense has improved this season.

The Patriots & Eagles will both get to host a home playoff game, and then who knows what happens after that. They both are able to beat any team if they play their game, getting hot and ripping off a couple wins isn't out of the question. The Saints are overrated, the Vikings just lost to a weak Carolina team, the Patriots outplayed the Colts a few weeks ago in their own house, and a Patriots/Chargers came could be a shoot out. At the odds you are buying them for, it's worth the risk. The Patriots were the favored team coming into the year, and the Eagles are probably the best team in the NFC right now, with the 3rd best odds.

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